By JOHN REITMAN
Editor, TurfnetGolf course superintendents have come to expect such accuracy in Herb Stevens’ weather forecasts that some open his weekly site-specific reports with a bit of trepidation.
“I was pretty skeptical at first. But now the running joke is ‘Oh, God. What’s coming now? Is it going to be hot? Is it going to be dry?” said John Zimmers, superintendent at Oakmont Country Club. “We really look forward to getting the information, but it’s like, ‘Oh gosh, do we really want to know what he’s going to tell us?”
For many, Stevens, who calls North Kingstown, R.I., home, is better known as “The Skiing Weatherman.” A former TV meteorologist (he was one of the original on-air personalities when The Weather Channel debuted in 1982) and skiing aficionado, Stevens has been providing skiing reports to TV stations in the Northeast for 20 years.
For five years Stevens, 55, has been providing superintendents with immediate and mid- to long-range forecasts they say are far more reliable than anything they can get on TV, radio or on the Internet. His golf course client list has grown from one course five years ago to about 40 today.
It should not come as a surprise that Stevens eventually branched out into the golf industry. An accomplished golfer – he carries a 1 handicap – Stevens also caddied on the PGA Tour from 1969-80, including five years for Larry Nelson. He called caddying for Nelson during the 1979 Ryder Cup at The Greenbrier in West Virginia, his greatest golf memory. As a graduate of Penn State University’s meteorology department, Stevens always believed it made sense to work with superintendents, given the school’s well-known turfgrass program.
And superintendents are so confident in his forecasts that they are willing to pay big money for them.
Matt Shaffer, director of golf course operations at Merion Golf Club in Ardmore, Pa., has been using Stevens’ forecasting service for four years, and finds the accuracy an asset in day-to-day management of the course.
Shaffer had heard about Stevens’ prowess through Brent Palich, the first superintendent to take advantage of The Skiing Weatherman’s forecasting skills. Shaffer tried the service on a trial basis, and it didn’t take long for him to buy into the program. Members of his staff, who at first couldn’t understand why he would pay for a weather service when there are so many other no-cost ways to receive weather information, soon were sold as well after Stevens helped save an aeration project.
“Herb sent in an e-mail that said we better get done in the first three days, because the last two were going to be a bust,” Shaffer wrote via e-mail. “My younger superintendents already thought I was nuts for paying a guy $4,000 a year for information they could get off the Internet.”
Or can they?
The local forecasts called for dry conditions. Shaffer still pushed to complete the project in three days. The rains came the fourth day and continued for several days, Shaffer wrote.
“His weekly predictions are amazing, but what is really amazing are his long-range forecasting and how accurate he is,” Shaffer wrote. “We utilize his predictability in helping us make decisions in regards to aeration, fertilizer applications, seeding schedules and so on.”
Most traditional meteorologists and forecasting services use information from the National Weather Service. But those forecasts that are derived from the GFS computer model only look at snippets of time and “are not worth the pixels with which they are printed,” Stevens said. His forecasts marry current conditions with information gleaned from examining similar weather patterns and cycles from the past.
“He’s not 100 percent all the time, but nobody is foolproof,” said Palich, now superintendent at Sand Ridge Golf Club in Chardon, Ohio. “But he has a great gift; that’s for sure.”
Stevens first applied his skill to golf five years ago as green committee chairman at Potowomut Golf Club in East Greenwich, R.I. The club had just hired Palich, a former assistant under Zimmers at Oakmont and Sand Ridge, as superintendent to whip the struggling course back into shape.
That fall, Stevens warned Palich of a front that would bring frost in 12 days. Sure enough, the frost came. Then there was the time Palich moved up an aeration project by two full weeks when Stevens told him it was going to snow on the original date.
“It snowed right after we were going to do it,” Palich. “He made me a believer then.”
Palich also recognized the need for such expertise in the golf course maintenance industry. He convinced Stevens of the same and began introducing him to fellow superintendents Palich thought might be interested, including Zimmers and Shaffer.
Many of Stevens’ clients have shared their reports with other factions of their clubs, who have in turn used the information to plan when scheduling member tournaments and other events, such as tennis tournaments.
“He’s pretty accurate. Herb gives you that 10- to 21-day outlook that’s hard to get. We’re able to chart things two to three weeks out,” said Zimmers, who found the information helpful when preparing for last year’s U.S. Open.
“My manager also uses it if there are other outdoor events coming. Our pro shop uses it, too. If they know there is a frost coming in a few days, it helps ease anxiety when people can’t get onto the golf course first thing in the morning.”
For more information, e-mail Stevens at skiwxman@cox.net, or call him at 401-965-6156.
Posted: 5/12/2008
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